Pakistan Cedes Territory to the Taliban, Al-Qaida?

The Pakistani English language website DAWN is reporting that Pakistan has signed a peace accord with the tribal region Waziristan, a deal that some western analysts are saying spells major trouble for the coalition forces in Afghanistan. Waziristan, a long narrow territory along the Afghan border, is a tribal region with a long history of militant activity and believed to be an enclave for the Taliban, and, the concern is, for Al-Qaida as well.

While the agreement calls for "no cross-border movement for militant activity in neighbouring Afghanistan", it is widely believed by western observers that this will not be enforced. Pakistan has indicated that it will not tolerate western incursions into this region. Pakistan is to remove its soldiers from the tribal region, while the elders, Mujahideen and Utmanzai tribe would "ensure that no-one attacked law-enforcement personnel and state property."

Western observer, Bill Roggio offered this concern:

"With the threat of the Pakistani Army removed in North and South Waziristan, the Taliban and al-Qaeda can now consolidate power and focus their efforts on attacking coalition forces in Afghanistan, as well as expand further into the greater North West Frontier Province."

Newsday comments that:

The accord asserts that "there will be no cross-border traffic for military activities," but contains the loophole that "for traffic ... for trade, business and family visits, there will be no restriction, according to the customs and traditions" of the border area. In practice, the ethnic Pashtun tribes on both sides of the border cross with little attention paid by Pakistani border guards, who traditionally are members of those same tribes.

Under the deal, Pakistan agreed that tribal paramilitary forces, rather than army troops, will handle border control duties, as they did before the recent army offensive. The poorly trained, underpaid paramilitaries have proved no barrier to Taliban infiltration past the border, U.S. troops say.

This perspective runs sharp contrast to the Times-Online report that sees the agreement as an important marker between Pakistan and Afghanistan in the control of Taliban and Al-Qaida movements.

Additional commentary by Steven Schippert at Threats Watch indicates that Musharraf of Pakistan has had to do some major smoozing to convince Karzai and NATO that there remains a will in Pakistan to deal with the Taliban and Al-Qaida.